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Force Index

The Force index was developed by my absolute favorite author Dr.  Alexander Elder.  Elder has written several books on trading and the psychology of trading it is interesting and rather indepth reading.  He is my favorite author because I find his writing to be the most interesting I have ever read.  I have read many books on stock trading and to be blunt many of them put me to sleep.  With Dr.  Elder's books I find I cannot put one of his books down once I start reading them.  

 The force index is a relatively new indicator and not widely followed.  It uses price movements and volume to measure the strength of either bears or bulls.  It is typically used with a 2day or 13day exponential moving average.  The 2 day EMA is used to measure the short term bull or bear cycle and the 13 day EMA is used to measure the intermediate bull or bear cycle.  The force index is an oscillating index which uses the zero mark as the turning point.  Bulls are in control when the index is above 0.  Bears are in control when the index measures below 0. 

 The force index is also one of those indicators like the MACD where we can look for divergence.  When the price has yet to reflect a strong movement in one direction or the other but the force index is moving that may be a sign of a pending move.  An example is if the price trend has been negative but the force index suddenly shows positive.  This may mean a strong movement to the upside could be in the cards.  The same holds true on the bearish side of the indicator.  

 Dr.  Elder explains that volume reflects the commitment of the mass market.  We say the same thing almost daily most of the time we wait for confirmation in volume before taking a position.  There have been many times when Bulletin stocks hit our listed buy point but we did not take a position because volume did not confirm the move.  Being aware of the volume has saved us many times from buying a stock on a false breakout that reverses and falls back due to a lack of volume.  Generally when volume fails to show commitment any rally that is present will likely fail.  The force index uses volume coupled with price to measure the strength of the breakout as it relates to volume.   Knowing the strength behind a rally or a decline and its impact on the future movement in a stock is a very good indicator to have in your corner.







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