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The Year 2000 and the 3 year Bear market

The Year 2000 a Look Back
If you had money invested in the stock market in the year 2000 chances are you are one of millions of people who lost anywhere from 50 to 80% of your portfolio value.  The three year bear market from 2000 to 2003 was one of the worst in history rivaling that of the 19291934 crash and bear that started the great depression.  We did not live through the 1929 crash but we did see first hand the 20002003 bear market and as they say every generation of investors has to suffer through at least one devastating stock market crash.  The bear comes around often but the magnitude of the above mentioned bears do not come around but once or twice in a life time.  I want to bring a little history up tonight so that we can reflect on what happened so we never get complacent in our investing and so we will always respect the power of the market.  The chances of it happening with that magnitude again in our remaining investing lives is slim to none however it will happen again in the future because it happens to every generation of new investors.  If you have children or grand children that are interested or will be interested in the stock market you owe it to them to make them aware of this devastating horror that could possibly create financial ruin for them.  Unless you make it a point to learn what happen what went wrong and why and pass it on to them the chances of history repeating itself is very good.
The Charts Forecasted it All
The mistakes made in the 2000 bear were the same mistakes new investors make in every bear market cycle whether it be a mini bear or a roaring stock market crash.  The degree of portfolio damage is the only difference between the two. The mistakes are the exact same that have been made over and over again throughout the history of the market.  During the 2000 bear market what 98% of investors did wrong was they relied on their opinions of what the market would do instead of following the market and listening to what the market was saying.  The charts said it all but people were either to stubborn to want to listen or they were just innocent victims who got in at or near the top because of all the media mania about the roaring bull that was on every cover of all the financial magazines.  This fact alone was a very good sign the great bull market run was nearly over.  When the average person on the street starts to want to invest in the stock market a top is near because when everyone knows it's too late. 
Be a Market yes man at all Times
The economy at the time was excellent.  The market was roaring everyone wanted in.  People were relying on favorable economic data as reassurance that the market would continue to flourish.  But using the economy to predict stock market direction is a backward approach.  The economy does not lead the market the market leads the economy.  To be successful in the stock market you have to observe what the market is doing and block out all the noise you hear on TV and in the news.  You also have to agree with the market at all times.  You cannot argue with it you must be flexible and change on a dime.  You might say you have to be a yes man to the market if you want to succeed.  This is tough for some people because ego's get in the way and they don't want to believe they are wrong when the market moves against them. 
You must agree with the market 100% of the time no matter which direction it is going.  If you thought last week the market would go up and it did but this week its going down you have to suddenly change your opinion you have to realize you can't keep the same thought you had last week.  What the market did last week is irrelevant and never worth defending once the direction has changed.  If you can't change your thinking then you are arguing with the market.  Don't worry about being consistent in your views of where the market is headed.  You can't afford to be consistent because the market isn't consistent.  The market does not care who you are what you think want or hope.  It doesn't care how much money you have in it.  You must look beyond your emotion or feelings and realize reality.  The reality of what is actually happening in the market while it is occurring.  Once you acquire this skill you will have developed something that most investors will never have.







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